A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
