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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still