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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.